Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.254413 25.532740 28.091276 31.211233 34.961222 39.388709 45.115141
2025-02-02 20.016216 22.975095 26.572309 31.389292 37.879711 46.677386 60.247386
2025-02-09 17.910607 21.234197 25.523041 31.713619 40.923364 55.172213 81.843354
2025-02-16 16.318036 19.820937 24.552866 31.809799 43.570482 64.196798 111.957278
2025-02-23 14.952207 18.486175 23.425302 31.363747 45.162066 72.221254 150.416094
2025-03-02 13.991373 17.571230 22.729785 31.390135 47.507890 83.082517 219.217299
2025-03-09 13.136237 16.701770 21.966395 31.126574 49.204726 93.747822 329.684122
2025-03-16 12.395335 15.920500 21.232186 30.760525 50.570127 104.802346 535.602270
2025-03-23 11.769259 15.251195 20.592590 30.441566 51.938934 117.381609 1049.080232
2025-03-30 11.246795 14.693803 20.070318 30.245767 53.540238 132.884342 3628.339652
2025-04-06 10.693288 14.047987 19.340036 29.537548 53.687469 143.305878 224620.481136
2025-04-13 10.547883 14.022079 19.638472 30.900324 59.732981 192.994539 NaN
2025-04-20 10.139306 13.557844 19.151963 30.598356 61.140071 222.234905 NaN
2025-04-27 9.827932 13.230098 18.876532 30.708405 63.905970 273.466026 NaN
2025-05-04 9.567101 12.967358 18.692835 30.992141 67.430941 355.484237 NaN
2025-05-11 9.300125 12.678054 18.435863 31.071454 70.366121 464.053995 NaN
2025-05-18 8.989131 12.298953 17.984947 30.636696 71.274215 560.766584 NaN
2025-05-25 8.757463 12.040363 17.739342 30.659368 74.065604 783.739324 NaN
2025-06-01 8.509797 11.742467 17.398489 30.404798 75.664300 1072.165125 NaN
2025-06-08 8.267859 11.443327 17.035969 30.052305 76.747621 1496.518634 NaN
2025-06-15 8.046609 11.170023 16.706415 29.745309 77.975718 2318.555857 NaN
2025-06-22 7.851850 10.934012 16.434926 29.556853 79.763111 4746.190889 NaN
2025-06-29 7.616783 10.619581 15.993131 28.875283 78.829474 7070.724684 NaN